LEWISBURG, Pa. — With the Nov. 3 midterm elections rapidly approaching, conventional wisdom suggests voters will judge candidates largely on the state of the economy. But new research from Bucknell University suggests political polarization may be weakening the economy’s influence on election outcomes, as voters increasingly prioritize party loyalty over economic conditions or candidate qualifications.
Bucknell Professor Chris Ellis ’00, political science, is lead author of the Bucknell Institute for Public Policy working paper, Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections, co-authored with Joseph Ura, professor and chair of political science at Clemson University. The two are also publishing a book related to the topic in December.
Drawing on two nationally representative surveys of 1,200 Americans each, their research found large numbers of Democrats and Republicans–and even many Independents–now base their vote choices on factors that have little to do with how things are going in the country.
The research also found that voters with stronger partisan attachments were less likely to prioritize holding elected officials accountable or evaluating candidates on their qualifications. Experimental findings offered more limited evidence that negative feelings toward the opposing party can further diminish those considerations.
“There are simply fewer voters willing to base their choices on objective economic conditions or the evaluation of each candidate on their merits than there were in a time of lessened polarization,” Ellis says. “People vote their identities: a vote is a reflection of who they are.”
Ellis can discuss what these findings mean for the midterms, why economic dissatisfaction may not translate into electoral consequences, and how campaigns increasingly focus on mobilizing loyal supporters rather than persuading undecided voters.
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CONTACTS: Chris Ellis, 570-577-1960, chris.ellis@bucknell.edu; Mike Ferlazzo, 570-577-3212, 570-238-6266 (c), mike.ferlazzo@bucknell.edu