TOPLINE RESULTS- INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT MODULE
Survey Conducted by YouGov America, June 13-June 23, 2022
N=1500
“According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the current U.S. inflation rate is closest to (1%, 3%, 5%, 9%, 20%)”
| Answer | Overall |
| 1% | 1% |
| 3% | 9% |
| 5% | 21% |
| 9% | 54% |
| 20% | 16% |
| Total | 100% |
Percentage of respondents who correctly guessed 9%:
| Overall | 54% | High political interest | 64% |
| Democrats | 50% | Low political interest | 39% |
| Republicans | 60% | Family income<50k | 48% |
| Independents | 56% | Family income>100k | 59% |
| Men | 61% | No college | 49% |
| Women | 47% | Bachelor’s or higher | 59% |
“Do you think that this official statistic is accurately capturing the current U.S. inflation rate, is overestimating the inflation rate, or is underestimating the inflation rate?”
All respondents:
| Overall | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
| Accurately capturing | 33% | 20% | 49% | 31% |
| Overestimating | 7% | 3% | 10% | 6% |
| Underestimating | 59% | 77% | 41% | 63% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Among those who correctly guessed 9%:
| Overall | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
| Accurately capturing | 34% | 21% | 52% | 30% |
| Overestimating | 4% | 0% | 7% | 3% |
| Underestimating | 62% | 79% | 41% | 67% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
“According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the current U.S. unemployment rate is closest to (1%, 4%, 7%, 10%, 15%)”
| Overall | |
| 1% | 6% |
| 4% | 49% |
| 7% | 22% |
| 10% | 12% |
| 15% | 10% |
| Total | 100% |
Percentage of respondents who correctly guessed 9%:
| Overall | 49% | High political interest | 64% |
| Democrats | 52% | Low political interest | 26% |
| Republicans | 48% | Family income<50k | 41% |
| Independents | 49% | Family income>100k | 58% |
| Men | 61% | No college | 40% |
| Women | 41% | Bachelor’s or higher | 58% |
“Do you think that this official statistic is accurately capturing the current U.S. unemployment rate, is overestimating the unemployment rate, or is underestimating the unemployment rate?”
All respondents:
| Overall | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
| Accurately capturing | 36% | 23% | 49% | 37% |
| Overestimating | 6% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| Underestimating | 58% | 69% | 43% | 60% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Among those who correctly guessed 4%:
| Overall | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
| Accurately capturing | 38% | 22% | 56% | 37% |
| Overestimating | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% |
| Underestimating | 57% | 70% | 41% | 60% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
“To what extent do you believe that each of the following is to blame for rising inflation in the United States? (Very important factor, important factor, minor factor, not a factor at all, not sure)”
% saying “very important” or “important” factor”
| Overall | Republican | Democrat | Independent | |
| Supply chain problems decreasing the availability of goods | 77% | 66% | 81% | 44% |
| Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its effect on energy prices | 57% | 37% | 77% | 54% |
| Large increases in government spending under President Biden | 53% | 89% | 24% | 56% |
| Changes in the economy outside of anyone’s control | 46% | 62% | 33% | 40% |
| A tight labor market driving increases in wages | 45% | 46% | 46% | 43% |
| Republican obstruction on anti-inflation bills in Congress | 43% | 14% | 72% | 38% |
| People leaving their homes and spending more as the pandemic wanes | 31% | 26% | 38% | 27% |
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
YouGov interviewed 1685 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1500 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).
The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.